At an event at the Clinton Global Initiative, Mohammad Yunus publicly blurted out what many suspected but the security establishments in many countries knew very well. Per a report in Times of India, Yunus let the cat out of the bag when he said “the student revolution in Bangladesh was not organic, but a meticulously designed agitation...”

What is shocking is not the fact that US was neck deep in regime-change in Bangladesh, but the naiveté of a political nobody that US chose to lead the country. It was indeed a sad spectacle to see Yunus, bereft of even a shred of diplomatese, spilt the beans in the presence of Bill Clinton, thanking them for their meticulous planning and support.  

The “meticulously planned” upheaval has already resulted in total lawlessness – lootings and killings of political opponents and Hindus – that has brought the economy to its knees.

To say that the recent developments in Bangladesh are deeply disturbing would indeed be an understatement. Firstly, the elected government of Sheikh Hasina was overthrown by street mobs fronting for their masters in the West. What is shocking is that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was elected in January 2024 with a big mandate, albeit there were allegations of unfair electoral practices.

Secondly, the fall of Hasina’s elected government is a big setback for the country’s economy. Already, it has approached multilateral lending agencies for a bail out. It is worth noting that recently China had turned down a request for $5 billion in investments in critical infrastructure.

Further, the country owes India almost $1billion in unpaid electricity charges. This default could lead to a stoppage of electricity supply, as confirmed by the new governor of the country’s central bank.

Thirdly, Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus who was “nominated by the Army” and protesting students to head the country’s interim government has proved to be a disaster. Ground reports from Dhaka suggest that he has neither the political following nor the administrative acumen to stem the looting and violence against religious minorities i.e., Hindu as well as political opponents.

Bangladesh, at its best, was not a flourishing economy. But its booming retail textile industry provided livelihood for millions of poor people. But the continuing violence and arson has forced global retail giants to cancel their orders and look for suppliers in India and other countries. The massive economic price will be paid by poor Bangladeshis who have lost their source of steady income.

Already, there are mass uprisings against Yunus all over the country. The grim economic realities together with street violence, collapse of the police and internal security apparatus is pushing Bangladesh to implode. If some analysts are to be believed, the country could soon witness armed civil strife that could splinter the country.

Many analysts have already noted the involvement of foreign powers in the turmoil in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina herself had alluded to the interference of western powers in the elections. Whoever engineered the regime change through civil unrest in Bangladesh, certainly had India as their target. The regime changes in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and now Bangladesh, appear to be part of a continuum to encircle India with unstable regimes and chaos.

The tactical intent, it appears, is to create fear in the Hindu minorities and trigger a mass exodus into India, reminiscent of 1971. Additionally, it will also push in Islamist radicals, Rohingyas and other anti-India secessionist elements to create chaos in India. An unstable neighborhood will certainly open new fronts and create vulnerabilities for India, distract and drain its resources. The strategic intent is to stall India’s rapidly progressing economic and military might.

The anticipated outcome of this social engineering in the medium term, is to create mass protests on the streets of India showing sympathy for the killings of Hindus in Bangladesh and then funnel this anger against the Indian establishment. This modus operandi is a clone of the recent civil unrests – like Shaheen Bagh and Farmer’s protests. It seeks to exploit India’s soft underbelly by weaponizing its own inherent vast political freedom to fight India’s democracy.

All these are powerful mind games that have been tried, tested and perfected from Ukraine to Latin America to the Middle East. The unsuspecting regimes there, despite having people’s mandate were successfully toppled using these toolkits. The aim is to pressurize New Delhi to comply with the dictates of the powers that are behind regime changes.

India’s response to these developments have been one of mature diplomacy, devoid of decibels, but focused on silent yet powerful actions on the ground. For example, India preemptively rushed reinforcements to fortify its borders and successfully prevented any influx. Prime Minister Modi himself raised concerns on the safety of Hindus in his Independence Day speech. While mouthing diplomatic niceties, India has so far not officially accorded recognition to the new regime. India had also politely turned down a request from Yunus to meet Modi in New York.

Prime Minister Modi’s resolve to fight terrorism head on is legendary. The government, over the last decade has made huge investments in upgrading its security and intelligence architecture – from drones to best-in-class weaponry to well-equipped quick reaction teams – that have shown their mettle in stamping out unrest in Kashmir and the Naxalite menace.

The internal security apparatus is thus primed, and battle hardened and has already been deployed encircling Bangladesh. From that perspective, it may be a miscalculation on part of the mind gamers to expect mass exodus of Hindus and radicals to pressurize India. It is still an open bet if there will be street protests in India.

Additionally, India holds tremendous economic leverage over Bangladesh to keep it in check. As mentioned earlier, from supplying electricity to exporting cotton to its textile industries to buying its fisheries exports, Bangladesh has deep dependencies on India. Hence, from a macroeconomic perspective, it would be suicidal to antagonize India at the behest of western powers.

The capitulation of Nepal, Sri Lanka and now Maldives offer a lesson in geopolitics to upstarts like Mohammed Yunus. He certainly can win accolades for being a diplomatic dehati (rustic) and blurting out the truth about the West’s conspiracy at the Clinton Global Initiative, but messing with India will present him a bag full of unpleasant surprises. The question on India’s mind is whether Yunus is the next Muizzu?