Russia, which has strong relations with Iran, can play an important role in revitalising Bahrain-Iran relations.

Past relationships

In many periods of the history of ancient Iran, Bahrain was part of Iran’s territory. During the Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah era, Iran still claimed Bahrain’s sovereignty. However, after decades, the United Nations accepted the result of the 1971 referendum in Bahrain, which led to the declaration of the country’s independence.

After the revolution of 1979, the relations between the two countries became strained over various geopolitical and ideological issues, such as the dispute over the issue of the Islamic Revolution, and the coup attempt in Bahrain.

Despite many previous fluctuations, in November 2007, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an official visit to Bahrain and reached agreements to supply Bahrain with natural gas and joint economic investments. The dispute over the March 2011 protests in Bahrain chilled relations between Tehran and Manama, and both countries expelled each other’s ambassadors. But almost 18 months after the tension, relations became normal.

The following years were also accompanied by ups and downs. Bahrain’s accusations against Iran regarding the arrest of a terrorist group in August 2015, Shiite protests, and subsequent developments led to the expulsion of diplomats. After the 2016 attack on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran, on January 4, 2016, Bahrain cut diplomatic relations, inter-airport flights, etc. with Iran.

The current process of normalization

Simultaneously with Iraq’s mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2022, delegations from Bahrain and Iraq tried to create an interaction between Bahrain and Iran. Previously, Oman was a bridge between Bahrain and Iran, and Oman mediated between Manama and Tehran at Bahrain’s request.

On May 12, 2024, Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran’s then foreign minister said: “We welcome the Bahraini government’s action to begin the release of political prisoners and evaluate it positively… Both sides are considering further steps toward the normalization of relations.”

After the crash of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter, the King of Bahrain and other officials sent an official message of condolence to Iran. In addition, Abdul Latif bin Rashid al-Ziyani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain, attended the funeral of Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran. Also, Bahrain sent a direct message to Iran and demanded the resumption of bilateral relations.

In late May, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sent a request through Russia to facilitate and re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran. He told Russian President Vladimir Putin that he sees “no reason to delay the normalization of relations” with Iran… Manama no longer has a problem with Tehran… and we are trying to establish normal diplomatic, commercial, and cultural relations with it.” He conveyed the same approach to Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang during his visit to Beijing and said: “We are trying to restore our diplomatic relations with Iran as a neighbour.”

In Al-Ziani’s second visit to Tehran in the last six months, Iran’s Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani and his Bahraini counterpart Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al-Ziani agreed in Tehran on June 24, 2024, to establish the necessary mechanisms and framework for the resumption of diplomatic relations.

Variables and opportunities

Bahrain’s approach to Iran also reflects the change in global geopolitical balances. Washington’s policies towards the Persian Gulf led actors such as Bahrain to further diversify international relations and expand relations with Russia and China, as well as normalize relations with Tehran.

With the reduction of American focus in West Asia and more focus on East Asia, US allies in the region do not receive the previous support and consider reducing tension with Tehran as the best option.

Bahrain is the only GCC country that has not normalized relations with Iran. Bahrain does not want to have a unilateral approach only among the Council. Therefore, one of Bahrain’s motivations for reviving diplomatic relations with Iran is convergence with Saudi Arabia and the GCC.

Iran’s influence in the Middle East through the expanding resistance network and the attention of other Arab players such as Egypt to Tehran is an incentive to completely resolve the tension between Bahrain and Iran.

Many in Bahrain believe that with the support of Russia and China, relations between Manama and Tehran will resume. Also, the process of resuming relations with Iran is faced with the positive reaction of the people and the issuance of a welcoming statement by the Bahraini Parliament.

From this point of view, due to the presence of Iranian citizens in Bahrain and vice versa, compared to other Gulf countries, Bahrain is the closest country to Iran and could provide a platform for the normalization of relations. Manama is optimistic about the approach of the new president of Iran and its new foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in Iran’s foreign policy.

Apart from the message from the king of Bahrain, to congratulate Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory, he also thanked and appreciated the “sincere and fraternal feelings” of the king of Bahrain, and emphasized his desire to strengthen and expand friendly relations between the two countries. Recently, the two sides have agreed to conduct negotiations focusing on the release of Iranian funds that have been blocked in Bahrain since Saudi Arabia severed ties in 2016. If Bahrain releases Iran’s frozen funds, it will be an accelerator on the path to normalization.

Key obstacles

Numerous obstacles may challenge the path and keep progress slow. Bahrain and Iran are different types of regimes. The relationship between a small power and a regional and revisionist power, that is against the current international order, is challenging. Iran has a geopolitical and geoeconomic view of multipolarity and challenges the unipolar order and security structure. But Bahrain is helping to bolster order by hosting US naval forces and contracts.

Bahrain is the main non-NATO ally and the main security partner of the United States in the Middle East. The United States signed a legally binding security agreement with Bahrain (unprecedented with an Arab country) in September 2023, so that Bahrain does not face unexpected negative developments in the future.

Additionally, in 2022 and 2020, Bahrain signed agreements to establish formal relations and security cooperation with Israel. Tehran considers it a betrayal and a threat to the region’s security. In another dimension, Manama previously joined the military coalition led by the United States to confront the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen despite the ongoing Gaza crisis.

Bahrain’s Shiite community (with a Shiite majority) is of particular importance to Tehran. From Tehran’s point of view, despite the amnesty of the prisoners by Manama, some dissidents are still imprisoned and the Bahraini Shiite opposition does not have a proper place in the parliament and government of this country. Also, the presence of opponents of the Manama government in Iran and the fate of Sheikh Isa Qasim, (the spiritual leader of al-Wefaq), will be a sensitive variable in the relationship between Manama and Tehran.

On the other hand, from Manama’s point of view, Tehran has played a role in the creation of Shia factions in Bahrain, such as Saraya Al-Mukhtar and Al-Ashtar Brigades. It seems that Bahrain’s view on relations with Iran is based on consideration of Manama’s interests in non-interference in internal affairs and non-provocation. Reducing tension over challenging issues can help to normalize the relations between Tehran and Manama, or keep them in a vacuum.

Perspective

Previously, mutual trade statistics were limited and the volume of Manama-Tehran trade relations is at a small level. However, the resumption of relations and normalization can help bilateral trade and profit and boost tourism, resumption of flights, economic cooperation in the field of energy, and even balance in Bahrain’s energy security.

Despite the reformist crown prince and defender of reforms, probably the obvious improvement in the situation of the Shiite opposition can be significant in the resumption of relations. Russia, with strong relations with Iran, may play an important role in reviving Bahrain-Iran relations.

Despite the efforts, it seems that in the short term, re-normalization will have the slowest speed. Therefore, we should not expect any de-escalation between Bahrain and Iran to have a wide depth in the short term. Reviving the relations between Bahrain and Iran will help to reduce regional tensions and strengthen security and cooperation. The approach of Iran and Bahrain to restore relations can deepen and have many positive consequences for the two countries with a gentle slope.

Farzad Bonesh, geopolitical and geoeconomic analyst, researcher and writer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.” Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2024/09/05/irans-relations-with-bahrain-opportunities-and-challenges/