Recently, Israel assassinated Hamas’ Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. This alleged assassination by Israel has raised multiple questions. The assassination has been followed by the Beijing Declaration – which aims to promote unity between Palestinian entities, a framework initiated by China. This frustrated the United States. Haniyeh’s assassination underscored the intricacies of Middle Eastern geopolitics, particularly the competition between China and the United States over the regional influence of oil. The United States is also using its allies to promote its interests in the region.

Geopolitical Rivalries Unveiled

Hamas’ Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh’s killing in Iran, allegedly by Israel, has revealed many geopolitical rivalries and ambitions of global powers. The assassination was conducted soon after the signing of the Beijing Declaration by a host of Palestinian entities, resulting in the unity of all the Palestinian stakeholders, including Hamas. Palestinian Liberation Organization and Hamas have a history of conducting negotiations. The most recent talks between them were about holding fresh elections in the country.

US and China: Competing for Influence

Notably, Israel is fully committed to the recent genocide in Palestine against innocent citizens, although it has diminished worldwide support of the former. Ostensibly, the prime motive behind this massacre by the Netanyahu administration is to prolong his government and temporarily evade the corruption charges against him. The USA was also against Ismail Haniyeh due to his support of the Beijing Declaration. The US wanted to be the negotiator between the Palestinian entities to strengthen its regional influence. It is also concerned about the post-war settlement and administration of Gaza. The United States seeks the administration of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, in Gaza after the end of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

This was only possible through an agreement between all the key stakeholders in Palestine. However, China’s mediation in this agreement between the Palestinian organizations has frustrated the United States. The latter has persistent animosity with China over global hegemony. Furthermore, China has recently started taking a deep interest in the Middle Eastern region, with a major success due to its successful arbitration between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Regional Dynamics and Future Implications

Both the superpowers are interested in the region for a similar reason, oil. However, the US influence in the region is rapidly declining due to its hardcore policies. It is a key supporter of Israel. The United States has vetoed multiple UN resolutions seeking a humanitarian pause in the Israeli genocide in Palestine. Moreover, the United States has been continuously providing arms and weapons to Israel during the persistent massacre in Gaza. This has further increased regional hatred towards the United States.

On the other hand, China is openly challenging the United States in all domains. It has unequivocally supported Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. China seeks to increase its influence globally. Therefore, it is aligning with Russia and the Central Asian countries. The success of China’s New Silk Road project and One Belt One Road initiative also depends on its fraternal ties with these countries.

Middle Eastern energy resources hold critical significance for China to expand its global influence. India is also hostile to China. It sees the latter as its regional competitor. India had been supporting the Palestinian cause for a long time. However, the BJP government has altered India’s position on the Palestine issue. India now holds a soft approach towards Israel. Its rivalry with China is one of the key reasons behind its soft policy towards Israel. Improving relations between India and the United States is also primarily motivated by the former’s rivalry with China. India is also interested in the energy resources of the Middle East.

Hamas has appointed Yahya Shinwar as the new political chief of its political bureau. Just like Haniyeh, Shinwar also holds a great reputation against Israel. He has spent 22 years in Israeli Jails, from 1989 to 2011. Israel described him as a “dead man” walking. There are speculations that Israel could have him assassinated, just like Ismail Haniyeh.

The latter’s assassination in Tehran sent a message to the whole world that even the capital of Iran is unsafe. It has exposed the whole region to a new escalation between Iran and Israel. The former has pledged to revenge the assassination of its guest. Israel has long been trying to directly involve Iran in this war to legitimize its war crimes in Gaza. However, the prudent response from Iran avoided escalation between the two sides.

Israel seems stuck in its invasion of Gaza. It does not have any clear plans for the post-war situation. The United States and all other Israeli allies are pressurizing it to avoid the occupation of Gaza and hand it over to the Palestinian people after the end of its invasion. On the other hand, Hamas seems successful in this war, as it has once again highlighted the Palestinian cause and has garnered global support for Palestine. Israel’s imprudent actions can lead the world into a new world war. Moreover, these policies are also hurting the US interests in the region while the Eastern bloc’s influence in the Middle East is rapidly rising due to Israel’s hardcore actions.

Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine  “New Eastern Outlook.” Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2024/08/16/geopolitical-tensions-and-the-middle-east-the-fallout-from-haniyehs-assassination/