Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s trip to New Zealand, Australia and Malaysia was an important element in the complex “game” unfolding in the Indo-Pacific region, involving all the world’s leading powers. It took place in the second half of June.

From 13 to 20 June this year, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang was on a foreign tour, visiting New Zealand, Australia and Malaysia. It should be remembered that only three months earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had visited the first two of these countries. Wang Yi, by the way, is in charge of foreign affairs and the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

Regional political background

The very fact that two of the five countries of the so-called “Anglo-Saxon world” are being visited by such high-ranking statesmen of one of the world’s leading powers after a very short interval testifies to the growing importance of the Southeast vector in China’s overall foreign policy course. There are, however, three important observations to be made.

First, the geography of Beijing’s interests and concerns, defined by the term “Southeast Vector”, extends far beyond the Southeast Asian sub-region that has recently been at the centre of the global political and information space. The competitive positioning of Beijing and Washington in the part of the Pacific Ocean south of the equator is becoming increasingly apparent.

The role of front-runner in the struggle between the latter and the growing influence of the former is primarily (but not exclusively) assigned to Canberra and Wellington, which claim to be the main contenders for participation in potential anti-Chinese military-political configurations. It should be recalled that Australia and New Zealand are already members of the “Anglo-Saxon” intelligence organisation “Five Eyes” (FVEY).

Secondly, China’s increased southeast activity in recent months does not mean that the northeast vector is of secondary importance to it. The resumption of the China-Japan-Korea platform (after a break of almost four years) is proof of this. With the participation, incidentally, of the same Prime Minister, Li Qiang.

A number of subsequent events in the Northeast Asian sub-region, as well as the state visit by Russian President V.V. Putin to the DPRK, confirm the extreme importance of what is happening in the process of shaping the overall picture emerging in the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. However, both this visit and a series of actions in recent days involving China, Republic of Korea and Japan require separate commentary.

Third, during their visits to Australia and New Zealand, Wang Yi and Li Qiang carried out the tasks within their respective spheres of competence. The former dealt mainly with general political issues, the latter with trade and economic issues.

New Zealand

Of the five “Anglo-Saxon” countries, New Zealand has the fewest foreign policy pretensions. Perhaps this is due to the peculiarities of its geographical location, which could be described as a “geopolitical backwater”. However, it does not care much about the political aspects of building a very favourable relationship with China.

In this respect, 2008 proved to be a milestone, with the signing of a bilateral free trade agreement that will be updated in 2022. In the 15 years since, Wellington’s trade with Beijing has quadrupled to more than NZS38 billion ($23 billion) in 2023. That’s an impressive amount given New Zealand’s population of 5 million. China is consistently ranked as New Zealand’s number one trading partner, almost three times more than Australia.

This positive picture of China’s relations with New Zealand was until recently unthreatened, even as the world, and the Indo-Pacific region in particular, deteriorated sharply. However, with the early resignation of Labour leader Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister in January 2023 and the Conservative victory in the next general election in November that year, there has been a tendency for Wellington to be drawn into the anti-China political games being played by both “big brothers” in the region. In particular, there is talk of New Zealand possibly joining the AUKUS configuration.

Wang Yi, who visited Wellington three months ago, persuaded the current New Zealand government, led by Christopher Luxon, that there was no need to worry about possible threats from China and therefore no need to join any military-political alliances. As far as can be understood, the interlocutors promised to “think about it”. Apparently, assessing the outcome of such “thinking” was the main purpose of Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s trip to New Zealand.

Speaking in Wellington at a meeting with his counterpart Ch. Luxon and then at an event in Auckland, the guest reiterated Beijing’s desire to develop all areas of bilateral relations in the most complimentary terms to his hosts. On the trade and economic front, Premier Li Qiang outlined the general line of the Chinese Communist Party on “opening up” to the outside world and creating the most favourable conditions for foreign companies to operate in China.

According to Prime Minister Ch. Luxon’s speech at the meeting, quoted on the official website of the New Zealand government, the country’s leadership is generally more inclined to continue the previous line of developing productive relations with China. In particular, the reaffirmation of the “one China principle” was noted. But with a caveat about the need to “maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait”.

Australia

In contrast to New Zealand, Australia’s positioning since the end of the last decade has clearly indicated a trend towards shifting the balance of political preferences towards Washington. The apotheosis of this trend was Canberra’s accession, under the previous government of Scott Morrison, to the tripartite AUKUS configuration, which includes both of Australia’s “big brothers”.

So far, this is not a military-political alliance, but rather a cooperation for the development of the latest technologies, but the trend indicated by the above-mentioned act of Canberra cannot but alarm Beijing. Beijing, of course, has set itself the task of preventing the formation of a genuine anti-China military-political alliance in the Indo-Pacific region. For this purpose, China has the same (very effective) tool in the form of Canberra’s extreme interest in developing trade and economic relations with Beijing.

The special significance of this factor is also clearly outlined in the Joint statement adopted after the talks between the guest and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. As for the author’s assessment of the main results of Li Qiang’s visit to Australia, it boils down to the assertion that not all is lost in China-Australia relations with the latter’s accession to the notorious AUKUS.

Malaysia

Li Qiang’s visit to Malaysia, the last country on his tour, marked the 50th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations at the end of May 1974. But in addition to the celebrations, the Chinese Premier also addressed the serious problems that have accompanied the development of the situation in Southeast Asia in recent years. Almost all of them are caused by the escalating struggle between the world’s leading players for influence over this vital sub-region as a whole, as well as over the individual countries that make it up.

Among them, Malaysia is one of the few countries where maintaining constructive relations is particularly important for each of the aforementioned players. In terms of economic development, it is considered one of “The Tiger Cub Economies”, with China as its number one trade and economic partner.

As far as Malaysia’s foreign policy positioning is concerned, it is balanced in the field of forces created here by the leading powers, without giving a clear preference to any of them. And Beijing appears to be quite happy with Kuala Lumpur’s positioning. The fact that the status quo in bilateral relations will continue to be maintained is evidenced by the results of the talks held here between the Chinese Premier and his Malaysian counterparts. One such outcome was the strong opposition to the prospect of ‘Taiwan independence’ expressed by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim during his meeting with Li Qiang.

Finally, we note that the course and outcome of the Chinese Premier’s trip discussed here became an important piece of a highly complex jigsaw puzzle reflecting the emerging situation in the Indo-Pacific region. It should be taken into account in general, as well as in its “details”, in the implementation of the “pivot to the East” strategy of Russia’s political course.

Vladimir TEREKHOV, expert on the problems of the Asia-Pacific region, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.” Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2024/07/18/chinese-premier-li-qiangs-visit-to-new-zealand-australia-and-malaysia/