The five strategies suggested in this piece are integral for further accelerating the global systemic transition to multiplexity that has already reached its latest tripolar phase as a result of India’s masterful responses to the past year’s chaotic events. In the span of a single year, India emerged as a globally significant Great Power, one whose policies have truly changed the course of International Relations due to the historic context within which they were promulgated.

2022 saw the global systemic transition unprecedentedly accelerate as a result of the full-spectrum paradigm-changing consequences catalyzed by Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. Moscow was forced to defend its national security red lines there after NATO crossed them, after which the US-led West’s Golden Billion imposed unparalleled sanctions that destabilized the world. Despite successfully reasserting its declining unipolar hegemony over the EU, the US failed to do the same elsewhere. 

The jointly BRICS- & SCO-led Global South refused to comply with America’s anti-Russian demands since these dozens of states had already become confident enough asserting their objective national interests over the years to the point where they weren’t going to be coerced into unilaterally conceding on them. Nowhere was this defiance more geostrategically meaningful than when it came to India, which the US earlier predicted would easily be pressured into marching in lockstep with its diktats.

America took India’s compliance with its anti-Russian demands for granted since its policymakers wrongly assumed that it had already become their largest vassal state. This false assessment was due to India being their country’s only Major Defense Partner, a member of the Quad, a participant in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and a fellow practitioner of Western-style democracy. In their eyes, all of this meant that India supposedly submitted to the US a long time ago.

The reality was altogether different though since India’s rapidly developing strategic relations with the US were actually driven by its leadership’s desire to balance between the Golden Billion and the Global South of which their country is a part in order to emerge as the kingmaker in the New Cold War. To that end, it decisively became Russia’s alternative valve from Western pressure so as to preemptively avert the scenario of its decades-long partner becoming disproportionately dependent on China.

That in turn revolutionized International Relations by breaking its hitherto bi-multipolar impasse characterized by the Sino-American superpower duopoly’s outsized influence, which would have been reinforced had China been able to get whatever it wanted from Russia in the preceding scenario. The global systemic transition is now irreversibly moving towards tripolarity ahead of its final form of multiplexity, but this process can be further accelerated by India doing the following across 2023:

1] Double down on the North-South Transport Corridor

President Putin’s repeated references to the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) this month [December-ed] prove that he regards it as a globally game-changing megaproject since it nowadays serves as the physical core of the third pole of influence that Russia, India, and Iran are jointly creating. By doubling down on the NSTC just like Russia signalled that it’s preparing to do, India can supercharge their collective efforts to break through the bi-multipolar impasse in International Relations a lot sooner than expected.

2] Tangibly assemble a New Non-Aligned Movement

India’s principled neutrality has already reaped the grand strategic dividend of turning it into the kingmaker of the New Cold War, the position of which can be cemented by leveraging its chairmanship of the G20 to assemble a new Non-Aligned Movement (“Neo-NAM”). As the voice of the Global South and its aspiring leader, India is uniquely placed to play the role of inspiring others to emulate its success so as to preemptively avert their own possible dependence on the Sino-American superpower duopoly.

3] Constantly recalibrate multi-alignment as required

The secret to India’s grand strategic success thus far is that its leadership has proven itself capable of flexibly adapting to rapidly changing circumstances in order to optimize their pursuit of objective national interests. This approach requires constant recalibration considering the continued uncertainty that’s expected to unfold across this decade’s “Age of Complexity”, which will predictably result in India undertaking more decisive policy moves as required in order to retain its irreplaceable kingmaker role.

4] Maintain equidistance between the superpowers

Building upon the above, the guiding imperative of the aforementioned approach is to maintain equidistance between the Sino-American superpowers, which will preserve India’s hard-earned strategic autonomy together with not inadvertently provoking a security dilemma with either. Preemptively averting the second scenario is crucial since India can ill-afford to be on China or the US’ bad side, which might lead to military or economic threats against it respectively if they regard India as their enemy.

5]  Prepare for the scenario of a Sino-American New Détente

The flurry of diplomacy between China and the US since President Xi met with his Western counterparts during November’s G20 proves that they’re indeed exploring the possibility of far-reaching mutual compromises aimed at indefinitely delaying the Indian-driven end of bi-multipolarity. In the event that a New Detente is clinched sometime next year, which is far from guaranteed but still can’t be ruled out, then India must be prepared for the worst-case scenario of China and the US teaming up against it.

The five strategies shared above are integral for further accelerating the global systemic transition to multiplexity that has already reached its latest tripolar phase as a result of India’s masterful responses to the past year’s chaotic events. In the span of a single year, India emerged as a globally significant Great Power, one whose policies have truly changed the course of International Relations due to the historic context within which they were promulgated.

Instead of submitting to the US as its largest vassal state like the latter’s policymakers wrongly assumed had been the case for years already, which would have led to Russia becoming China’s “junior partner” out of necessity and thus entrenching bi-multipolarity, India reaffirmed its independence. That had the effect of derailing both superpowers’ grand strategic trajectory, thus midwifing the next phase of the global systemic transition, which is now irreversible.

Nevertheless, the Sino-American superpower duopoly is presently plotting to join forces in indefinitely delaying the Indian-driven end of the bi-multipolar system that they have equal self-interested stakes in preserving, ergo their ongoing discussions over a New Détente. It’s with this scenario in mind, which would be major if it comes to pass, that the five suggestions were made above with a view towards facilitating the global systemic changes that were catalyzed by India over the past year.

Even in the event that China and the US agree to a series of far-reaching mutual compromises aimed at enabling them to jointly push back against these aforesaid changes, their efforts will be futile since India will continue ensuring the irreversibility of everything that’s unfolded by leading from the front. Doubling down on the NSTC will make tripolarity a reality a lot sooner than expected, while tangibly assembling the Neo-NAM will multilateralize this system by including the entire Global South within it.

India is the only country capable of leading the tripolar evolution in International Relations due to its equidistance between the superpowers and the attendant kingmaker role that this has endowed it with in the New Cold War. Nobody else can inspire dozens of other states to follow their lead and thus sustain the progress that’s been achieved thus far in the systemic transition to multiplexity. Without exaggeration, it can therefore be concluded that India’s newfound global role is truly historic.

Courtesy Andrew Korybko

https://korybko.substack.com/p/these-five-strategies-for-2023-will?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=835783&post_id=93729607&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email