The BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who is also seeking election to the Lok Sabha from Varanasi, will sweep the polls in this prestigious constituency on May 12. Congress candidate Ajai Rai (a criminal), AAP candidate Arvind Kejriwal (an anarchist), and the unremarkable candidates of the SP and the BSP and all others in the fray will forfeit their security deposits. These are the findings of the latest pre-poll survey conducted by a leading poll agency, CICERO, for the India Today Group.

The survey was conducted between April 30 (six days after Narendra Modi filed his nomination papers) and May 3 (four days before the biased and vindictive local administration denied him his right to campaign in his constituency by holding a public meeting and organising a road show in the city). The survey teams covered 75 places in the constituency and interviewed 1509 eligible voters from all castes and communities. The findings were broadcast by the India Today Group-owned news channel Aaj Tak on May 9 at prime time between 10 and 11.30 p.m.

According to the survey, Narendra Modi, who is the only candidate in the country to be disallowed by the Election Commission and local administration to campaign in his own constituency, will get 56 per cent of the popular votes polled. This is not important in the sense that his massive victory in Varanasi is a foregone conclusion. What is significant was the finding that Narendra Modi would get votes cutting across caste and community lines.

Barring the Muslim and Yadav votes, Narendra Modi would get an overwhelming majority of Brahmin, Vaishya, Rajput, Bhumihar, OBC and Dalit votes. He will get 77 per cent Brahmin votes, 78 per cent OBC votes, 80 per cent Rajput votes, 81 per cent Vaishya votes, almost an equal percentage of Bhumihar votes, 53 per cent Dalit votes, 41 per cent Yadav votes, 33 per cent Jatav votes and a good 17 per cent Muslim votes. The remaining Brahmin, Rajput, Vaishya, Bhumihar, Dalit, Jatav and Muslim votes will be shared between the remaining 42 candidates, including those fielded by the Congress, the AAP, the SP and the BSP.   

As for Ajai Rai and Arvind Kejriwal, the former, according to the pre-poll survey, will get 15 per cent of the total votes polled and the latter only 10 per cent. More than 16 per cent of the total votes polled are needed to save one’s security deposit. Ajai Rai and Arvind Kejriwal together will get 61 per cent of the total Muslim votes polled. The share of the Congress would be 40 per cent and that of Arvind Kejriwal 21 per cent. This finding is very significant and indicates that the Congress and the AAP are more popular among the Muslim voters. The reasons are obvious.

The SP is likely to get 15 per cent of Muslim votes and the BSP a paltry 2 per cent. Interestingly, the BSP candidate will get 44 per cent of the Jatav votes, 11 per cent more as compared with Narendra Modi’s projected tally of Jatav votes, and 26 per cent Dalit votes, 27 per cent less as compared with the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate’s projected tally of this category of votes. The pre-poll survey also suggested that the SP candidate will get 40 per cent Yadav votes, a paltry 2 per cent OBC votes, 3 per cent Jatav votes, 15 per cent Muslim votes and only 2 per cent Dalit votes.

All these statistics only serve to demonstrate that while the politically conscious Varanasi voters will return Narendra Modi to the Lok Sabha with a huge victory margin, they will inflict a crushing and humiliating defeat on the Congress, AAP, SP and BSP candidates. There are reasons to believe that the vote share of Narendra Modi will further increase during the remaining few hours. That he was not allowed to campaign in his constituency had its impact on the Varanasi electorate.