This year saw an Israeli-US joint exercise “Juniper Cobra 10” take place off the coast of Israel which involved the IDF and the US Navy 6th Fleet. The purpose of the exercise was to participate in countering simulated attacks by ballistic, medium-range and short-range missiles and rockets by Iran on Israel.

As part of this build up the US Military has more than doubled its stockpile of weapons in Israel which it states “Israel can use.” One would assume that just like the preparation in the build up to the Lebanon Crisis in 2006 and pre Cast Lead in 2008, this is a clear indication that both the US and Israel are preparing for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The US Navy already has a significant naval force in the Gulf and we are now seeing the slow deployment of Israeli Naval Vessels into the region. In order for the Israeli Navy to position to such a location, it requires the permission of the Gulf States to enter their waters. One may wonder how these Islamic States could allow Israeli vessels to transit their zone with the intention of carrying out an attack on another Islamic country (Iran). Nothing surprises me anymore when we saw those same states turn their back on Gaza and Palestine.

The UN and the world look on without saying a word, knowing this action will probably take place as soon as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) is ready for operational use. The Pentagon has been applying extreme pressure on Boeing to bring forward the development and testing of this massive bomb by June 2010, almost two years ahead of intended operations. It may also be the US intention to make use of the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) which was intended for use in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It is my understanding that this is not just a simple action to take out nuclear facilities, but rather an extremely dangerous situation that could not only lead to a major action or war, but also cause catastrophic radiation contamination of the entire Middle East and the World. [I will cover the environmental aspect in Part 2; Part 3 which will cover the economic damage such action would cause to the UK and EU economies].

Militarily speaking this possible strike can erupt into full scale war based on the proviso that if Israel and the US attack Iran, that would be considered an act of war resulting in retaliatory action by Iran on Israeli and US targets. Iran has a significant high tech military that can cause much damage on the invaders, and once that step has been taken the US would carry out further attacks resulting in War. My guess is this is what the US, UK and NATO countries really want, which is a regime change… heard that before in Iraq and Afghanistan?

With the new NATO ground rules clearly in place “An attack on one is an attack on all,” or what has recently been added to the rules, “An attack on any military facility, oil/gas facility, pipeline or any other commercial entity is an attack on all,” we can, as usual, see how the US can carefully manipulate this action into a total NATO involvement, or a possible WW-3. Such action by the US and Israel would be totally irresponsible leading to the possible deaths of millions of people in the region.

So let’s look at this very dangerous and complicated military scenario starting to unfold and fully understand who has to be involved in carrying out such an attack and the risks associated with its implementation.

First of all, this type of operation is pushing the safety envelope of the Israeli Air Force to its maximum and can only be achieved with the involvement of the US Military. None of the existing IAF aircraft can make such a long range flight without transiting other Islamic States, stopping for fuel, or having in-flight refueling provided by the US. The massive US-fed munitions stockpile currently in Israel would be utilized by the IAF and they would have to take maximum weapons payload with minimum fuel.

This mission would test both aircraft and their crews to the maximum with the main purpose of delivering their deadly payload to target, and with no room to detour or carry out a defensive role if attacked by any Iranian aircraft. It would clearly mean that some Israeli aircraft would not return as a result of this high risk operation.

The weapons stockpiled by the US in Israel also contain weapons with uranium components, such as “Bunker Buster,” and a combination of such weapons hitting a nuclear facility would have terrible consequences in the Middle East. Then we have the question of the MOP which is specifically being tested for use in Iran. This bomb has the potential to not only cause catastrophic damage, but also the ability to set off earthquakes in the region.

All of the above weapons in that context could be classified as WMDs, are totally indiscriminate in their application and thus in breach of the Geneva Convention and many other international laws. We have heard rumours that such weapons as the MOP and other penetrating type weapons could have triggered the earthquakes in California and Haiti. Any weapon of this size when it enters the earth crust sends huge shockwaves deep into the earth and should this be in an area of existing rifts, the resultant aftermath is self-explanatory.

Let’s look at this evil bomb currently under test in the US. The MOP is around 20.5 feet long, with a total weight of just under 30,000 lbs. The weapon carries 5,300 lbs of explosives. It is carried aboard a US Air Force B-2 Bomber and is guided to its target by its onboard global positioning navigation system.

The only aircraft capable of carrying this weapon is the USAF B-2 Stealth Bomber and hence, if Israel attacks Iran (which is what US wants), then the US will definitely be involved in the delivery of this bomb. The B-2 will be able to carry two MOPs and thus would be a prime target to attack as it approached Iranian airspace. The B-2 would fly at high altitude and release the weapons some distance from target.

It is my belief that whilst Israel and the US are on a war footing, they may possibly carry out strikes on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria during 2010. As with all conflicts, the whole purpose is to divide and conquer, and Israel is right in the middle of a very unstable area. Should they choose to carry out such action, I am sure this could well see the end of Israel.

Peter Eyre, a former British Naval officer, worked at NATO headquarters, and spent a lot of time in the Middle East and South East Asia as a petroleum consultant; he lives in the UK and writes regularly for the Palestine Telegraph