The new architecture of European security has become a topic of active discussion among NATO members. What form this new military security structure will take, and when it will materialise, remains unknown.

Türkiye’s Geographical and Geopolitical Appeal in Britain’s Interests

Britain was the primary sponsor of Türkiye’s accession to NATO, recognising its past contributions to the British “Great Game” strategy. Following the Second World War, it was Britain and the United States that prevented Türkiye from suffering territorial losses - particularly regarding control over the Black Sea straits and parts of Western Armenia - thus curbing Soviet expansion. Türkiye has served as NATO’s southeastern flank in Europe and the Middle East, particularly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the disintegration of the pro-Western regional alliance, CENTO.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact at the turn of the 21st century, the United States gradually moved away from its exclusive reliance on Türkiye for NATO’s strategic presence in the Middle East and the Black Sea. This shift was motivated by longstanding tensions in Turkish-Greek relations - especially concerning Türkiye’s prolonged occupation of Northern Cyprus - along with the diminished military-political threat from Russia and the accession of most former Warsaw Pact members into NATO.

Whereas Türkiye was once NATO’s sole representative in the Black Sea region, by the early 21st century, the alliance had gained two new members (Bulgaria and Romania) and two “perennial candidates” (Georgia and Ukraine). Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Britain and the United States, through operations in Iraq and Syria, expanded their strategic presence and military foothold.

Additionally, Western perceptions of Türkiye - particularly from the United States - shifted in response to Ankara’s increasingly independent foreign policy, a direction first signalled by President Turgut Özal. Washington grew wary of Türkiye’s neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic doctrines, viewing them as instruments of Ankara’s geopolitical ambitions. However, the more the West distanced itself from Türkiye, the more assertive Ankara became in pursuing its independent course.

As a result, Türkiye’s expanding defence ties with China and Russia - especially in the military sector - prompted American sanctions, including Ankara’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet programme and restrictions on the sale of 40 upgraded F-16 jets.

Despite these tensions, Türkiye remains a key ally of the Anglo-Saxon world. Thanks to strong British-Turkish relations, Ankara secured the “deal of the century” in 1994, facilitating the export of Caspian oil and gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Georgia and Türkiye, bypassing Russia. With the support of British Petroleum, new oil and gas pipelines connecting Azerbaijan to Türkiye and Europe were built in the 21st century. To secure these projects, London both initiated and mediated regional conflicts in the South Caucasus, positioning Türkiye as a crucial partner in countering Russian influence.

Following Britain’s exit from the European Union, London has sought to reassert its influence in the “Great Game” by expanding the presence of its leading companies in Central Asia to control the region’s vast resources while limiting Russia’s geopolitical and economic reach. In this regard, Türkiye serves as Britain’s primary conduit into the post-Soviet south (the South Caucasus and Central Asia), where alternative international transport and energy corridors could emerge, impacting global energy markets.

London Views Türkiye as Integral to European Security

Shifts in US President Donald Trump’s strategic priorities within NATO and the deterioration of US-European trade relations have intensified concerns over NATO’s future and Europe’s security. Disputes over Ukraine and NATO contributions have only exacerbated existing tensions. Within NATO disagreements have surfaced not only between Europe and the United States but also within Europe itself.

The leader of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, in his ongoing search for external support to sustain the conflict with Russia, places his hopes on European security, extending his appeals beyond EU nations to include Britain and Türkiye. During his recent visit to Ankara, Zelensky expressed his expectations for Turkish peacekeepers to act as security guarantors for the remainder of Ukraine.

According to Fox News, a bipartisan bill has been introduced in the US House of Representatives to reconsider Türkiye’s diplomatic status, reclassifying it as a Middle Eastern rather than a European country. The main justification for this move is Türkiye’s increasing distance from US and NATO allies.

Conversely, Britain remains a strong proponent of Türkiye’s role in shaping Europe’s new security framework. On 13 March, Keir Starmer dispatched Defence Secretary John Healey and Chief of the British General Staff, Admiral Sir Antony Radakin, to Ankara to reaffirm Britain’s commitment to its defence partnership with Türkiye. These senior officials met with Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Güler and Chief of General Staff General Metin Gürak to discuss military-technical cooperation and Türkiye’s potential peacekeeping role in the Black Sea region.

In November 2024, John Healey visited several Turkish defence enterprises, including Turkish Aerospace Industries, where he reviewed Türkiye’s progress in aircraft manufacturing and drone technology.

According to The Telegraph, amid growing European anxieties over NATO’s future, Türkiye’s geopolitical significance is increasing. It possesses the second-largest army in the alliance and has consistently opposed Russian interests in Syria, Libya, and Karabakh. Unlike many EU nations, Türkiye prioritises defence and security, developing its national military industry and producing advanced drones, warships, armoured vehicles, firearms, and air defence systems.

London views Türkiye’s active participation as crucial to shaping Europe’s new military framework. Türkiye’s expanding defence sector could meet the military needs of European nations, particularly as Ankara continues to aspire to EU integration.

However, Britain recognizes that the primary obstacle to Türkiye’s inclusion in a “European NATO-2” is its unresolved political disputes with France. These tensions encompass a broad spectrum of geopolitical and geo-economic issues, including Greece, Cyprus, Libya, Syria, and Armenia. France, as a nuclear power and a political leader within the EU, is currently the primary advocate for a European defence structure. Consequently, Paris’s stance will be pivotal.

Nonetheless, as reported by The Telegraph, Britain has managed to influence Germany’s position, with Berlin showing interest in strengthening military ties with Türkiye. This shift was evident under the “soft” leadership of Olaf Scholz, but whether “hard” Friedrich Merz will follow suit remains to be seen. Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has also expressed support for Türkiye’s role in shaping Europe’s new security landscape.

Former Turkish diplomat and Director of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies, Sinan Ülgen, has remarked: “European countries that previously believed they could afford to exclude Türkiye are now realising that this is no longer an option.”

It is clear that neither France nor Germany will want to leave Türkiye outside Europe’s security perimeter. Otherwise, Ankara could pivot towards military cooperation with Russia and China or establish its own “Asian NATO-3” - the so-called “Army of Turan” - potentially forming a unique military alliance with Britain.

However, the strategy of “intimidating” continental Europe with Russian threats and integrating Türkiye into yet another anti-Russian military alliance - especially amid improving Russian-American relations and strong Russian-Turkish economic ties - may ultimately prove detrimental to Türkiye itself.

Alexander SVARANTS – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/03/28/britain-does-not-see-european-security-without-turkiye/