With US President Trump imposing tariffs on China and pushing EU countries to ‘do more’ or face tariffs, the EU has an opportunity to reset its ties with China. Wasting this opportunity will push the EU into a much deeper ‘lose-lose’ position than it would otherwise be.

When the EU began to follow the Biden administration in its footsteps last year to impose trade tariffs on China, this decision was not necessarily taken on the basis of accurate calculations as to how this policy might need a reset in the wake of a domestic political change in the US. Now that Donald Trump has won and appears to have no qualms about giving the EU any special treatment as a junior partner, the EU stands to benefit from diffusing its trade war with China. Bloomberg recently reported that the EU is mulling over dropping its trade case on China. Such a decision would make sense because, despite the rumblings of the trade war, EU-China trade actually has kept growing.

According to reports in the Chinese media, EU-China trade grew by 1.6 per cent in 2024. “China’s exports to the EU totalled 3,675.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.3 per cent, reflecting strong European demand for Chinese goods”. According to customs data, in the past year, the EU remains China’s second-largest trading partner, trailing only the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

In fact, EU-based industrialists are pushing for more Chinese investment in the continent. Ola Källenius, who is also president of the EU car industry body Acea and chief of Mercedes-Benz, thinks that tariffs would hurt Brussels and that the alternative should be to invite China to open more car plants in Europe. What Källenius is suggesting is not that the EU should drop whatever concerns it has vis-à-vis China.

What he (and many others like him in the EU) is arguing about is to treat business-related issues pragmatically and without necessarily wrapping geopolitics around them. For instance, von der Leyen, EU president, is reported to have described China as a “systemic threat”. This is a classic example of ideological posturing, pitting ‘the West’ against ‘the East’.

But this is not how China has presented itself to the EU. When China’s Xi recently spoke with the European Council President Antonio Costa, he reminded Costa that “there exists no clash of fundamental interests or geopolitical conflicts between China and the European Union (EU), making them partners that can contribute to each other’s success”. The message is not just rhetoric, given that the EU is not a threat to China.

Leaders in the EU should not forget that it is Donald Trump who sees the continent as a threat. In fact, Trump said in 2018 that “the EU is possibly as bad as China, just smaller. It is terrible what they do to us”. In 2025, he once again said that “we have a $350 billion deficit with the European Union. They treat us very badly, so they’re going to be in for tariffs.”

What the EU Stands to Gain

An EU decision to appreciate its ties with China without wearing any ideological lens means, first and foremost, an opportunity to treat its ties with all countries without an ideological lens. It includes the US.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said last Wednesday (22nd January) after a meeting in Paris that they will “not duck and hide”. They also called for a united Europe against Trump. Macron also said Europe needed to increase spending on its defence and also “develop its own industrial base, its own capacities, its own industry.”

This message of acquiring strategic autonomy is very similar to China’s position that Xi eloquently expressed in his conversation with Antonio Costa. Xi told Costa that “China has always regarded Europe as an important pole in a multipolar world, firmly supported European integration, and backed the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy.”

What EU Stands to Lose

If the EU, however, does duck and hide, it will continue down the path to geopolitical irrelevance. When Trump was in power in 2019, there was a realization in the EU to become strategically autonomous. Von der Leyen, then President-elect, reminded her allies in 2019 in Europe that the EU commission under her leadership would be “geopolitical” insofar as it will “invest in alliances and coalitions to advance our values. We will promote and protect Europe’s interests through open and fair trade. We will strengthen our partners through cooperation because strong partners make Europe strong too. My Commission will not be afraid to speak the language of confidence. But it will be our way, the European way.”

Of course, nothing much has transpired in the direction of the EU’s autonomy in the past few years. The continent is facing immense pressure from its chief ally. Threatened by trade tariffs and demands for massively increasing defence spending, the continent is at an inflection point. If it fails to mend its way and maintains an ambiguous – and weak – position vis-à-vis its own interests, it only stands to lose. In other words, if it continues to follow the path of a trade war with China, it will end up fighting two wars simultaneously. Washington will impose tariffs and China might retaliate too. The EU should not let that happen.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/02/02/trump-is-an-opportunity-for-a-china-eu-reset/