The year 2024 has left the international climate more unstable and unpredictable than ever since the culmination of the Cold War. Simmered geopolitical antagonisms, chaos and war in the Middle East, conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and volatility in the global environment have plagued the international climate for the year 2025.

Shifting Global Order: The decline of Western Dominance

With the eroding Western dominance and decreasing credibility of the multilateral institutions, the world is rapidly shifting towards a multipolar global order. Middle powers will continue to play a crucial role in molding the geopolitical landscape in the changing world order. Amidst the already volatile world, people around the world are suspicious about the second term of the president-elect Donald Trump in office. Due to his mercurial personality, it seems that he will unleash further volatility in global affairs. His policy statements during the presidential campaign suggest that his presidency will prove more disruptive for an already chaotic world. Trump’s policies toward the country’s competitors, rivals, and allies will be of prime concern for the whole world.

The Sino-US tensions and global trade risks

Sino-US relations will also hold pivotal strategic eminence in the year 2025. Given President-elect Donald Trump’s capricious personality, his policies about China will likely be inconsistent. Tensions between the two sides will either further escalate or will these relations gain some grand bargain. However, Trump’s repeated threats of imposing greater tariffs on China along with many other countries, having a trade surplus with the United States, propound that a vigorous global trade war will be 2025’s one of the top risks. Control Risks, a London-based risk assessment consultancy firm, speculates that 2025 will institute “national security as the guiding principle of international trade and investment.”

Trump’s protectionist trade policies will have global consequences. However, the world is preparing strategies to counter Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Chinese companies are already expanding their influence and trade relations with countries in the Global South. Furthermore, technological decoupling between China and the United States is reported as a high risk.

The year 2025, would also be decisive for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump’s approach towards Ukraine has already made the European countries anxious. His admiration for President Putin and his statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict suggests that he would coerce the latter to end the conflict peacefully through negotiations. Likely, he would not be concerned even if Ukraine has to cede territory to Russia to resolve the conflict.

Middle Eastern theatre might also observe significant policy changes by the US this year. Trump has repeatedly advocated peace in the Middle East. He has also stated that he seeks to establish a ceasefire in Gaza. However, this peace will only be established by fulfilling Israel’s regional aspirations. Most likely, Gaza will be at a loss in Trump’s attempt to establish peace in the region. Despite his policy of non-interference, it will be hard for the United States to stay out of Syria due to the intricate regional ramifications of Bashaar al-Assad’s regime.

Border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan demonstrate that terrorism persists to be one of the top threats to peace in South Asia. Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been using Afghan soil to conduct terrorism in Pakistan. Despite continuous warnings and appeals from the Pakistani authorities, the Afghan officials seem reluctant to take any serious action against the TTP.

Afghan Taliban’s border clashes with Pakistan instead of controlling the TTP depict that the terrorist organizations will continue to destabilize the region using Afghan soil. Moreover, Pakistan continues to remain politically unstable. Pakistani government still lacks credibility. This depicts that stability in South Asia will remain a question even in the year 2025.

The rise of authoritarianism and technological challenges

Over the years, democracy has declined in almost all the global regions. With increasing restrictions on citizens and rising autocratisation around the globe, the trend of decline in democratic rights and freedom is expected to persist. All the international organizations and global think tanks are pessimistic about the future of democracy in 2025 and beyond. The reason behind this continuous decline in democracy is that political systems are unable to deliver as per the expectations of the citizens.

The rise of Artificial Intelligence and disinformation on social media has further jeopardized global peace. Increased cyberattacks, proxy wars, and disinformation campaigns on social media have made it challenging for states to counter fifth-generation warfare. Furthermore, AI-powered tools in every aspect of life including healthcare, entertainment, personal life, and business will become even more widespread. The use of AI in the military will also alter traditional methods of warfare.

The rise of Russia and China as the global superpower will further strengthen in 2025. Trump’s mercurial personality will further weaken the trust of third-world countries in the United States. Moreover, the inclusive policies of Russia and China and the non-exclusive framework of BRICS will further cement the role of the Middle powers in molding the global world order in 2025.

Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/01/09/chaotic-global-climate-in-2025/