The transitional state in which the US system of governance finds itself today leaves the main players in the game around the Taiwan issue in considerable confusion.

The latest activities of the Biden Administration

The uncertainty factor, previously noted in the NEO, that arose in the complex of US relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its main geopolitical opponent, as well as with Japan, the US’ key Asian ally, caused by the transitional state of the governance system of the still leading world power, cannot but be reflected in the transformation of the Taiwan issue. Judging by the latest activities of the outgoing administration of Joe Biden, the real masters of the country standing behind him seem to be doing everything possible to make it difficult, if not impossible, to make any significant adjustments to the political course set during the period of the Democratic Party’s rule.

This is especially true for the external aspects of US policy and, above all, for relations with China, in which one of the main problems is precisely Taiwan. NEO has written about the fact that Joe Biden signed at the end of November the 6th in 2024 (and the 18th during his entire presidency) contract for the supply of some weapons systems to Taiwan, as less than a month later the Taipei Times (citing Reuters) reported on Biden’s instruction to the State Department to “manage through the Defense Department” the implementation of two more similar deals for a total of about $900 million.

This action, like similar previous ones, fits into the format of the thesis “on the need to counteract the growing threat of Chinese invasion of Taiwan,” which has been constantly among the top issues broadcast in the American information space lately. In particular, the topic corresponding to this thesis was one of the main topics of the latest report of the Defense Department which appeared in mid-December, under the general title “Military Development of the PRC,” which has been given to Congress annually over the last two decades.

Like all previous deals on the sale of American weapons to Taiwan, this deal also did not go without the expected comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, as well as Chinese experts, who expressed their opinion not only verbally, but also in memes. In particular, attention is focused on the motive of creating difficulties in the implementation of attempts by the next administration to make any adjustments to US policy in the Chinese direction in general and in the Taiwan problem in particular.

Donald Trump’s position is not yet clear

Weapons have been sold to Taiwan more or less always, and on a particularly large scale precisely during the first presidency of Donald Trump. American experts see certain differences of a “conceptual nature” in the characteristics of the weapons supplied “under Trump and under Biden.” However, quasi-scientific discussions on the topic of such “differences” are hardly of any interest to Beijing, for which the very fact of another state supplying weapons to the leadership of the “Chinese rebellious province” is what actually matters.

As for what the policy of Trump’s second presidency will look like regarding the Taiwan issue, it is unlikely that he himself has a clear understanding of it today. In this matter, the opinion of the same American experts is of undoubted interest. Especially if such a role is played, for example, by the former national security adviser (in 2019–2021) Robert O’Brien, who last year more than once spoke in the sense that in his second presidential term Trump will in every possible way encourage Taiwan to purchase American weapons.

Guided, among other things, by considerations of receiving some compensation for losses due to “the Taiwanese once taking almost 100% of our chip manufacturing business,” which was voiced in the summer of 2024 by the same Trump.

By the way, Taiwan (specifically, TSMC) caught the “sideways glance” of the next leader of its main external support, and hastened to demonstrate that they are ready to “return the favour in full,” in particular, by accelerating the process of commissioning two factories in Arizona for the production of chips.

Another Taiwanese company, GlobalWafers, plans to build factories in the states of Texas and Missouri for the production of silicon wafers (“substrates”), to which electronic microcircuits are then applied. The total cost of this project is estimated at $4 billion, of which the share of US government expenses will be only 10%.

Of interest may certainly be the assessments of the motivations for Trump’s behaviour during his first presidency in some difficult situations in relations with China and Russia, as well as forecasts on the issue of arms supplies to Taiwan in his second term, which were presented by the Taipei Times columnist, John J. Tkacik Jr.

It is especially noteworthy that Trump himself speaks on the topic under discussion. And he speaks in such a way that it is difficult to even make some assumptions. In an extensive interview with NBC, given by the president-elect on December 8 and almost entirely devoted to his country’s internal problems, as well as relations with its closest neighbours, he simply refused to answer a direct question about what is supposed to be done “in the event of China’s invasion of Taiwan.” The persistent interviewer repeatedly tried to press him on the general “China issue,” but Trump never said anything definite.

This is not surprising, since for a person with a lot of experience in the realities of political life, which Trump undoubtedly is, it would be rash to speak out in any definite way on the key problem of the modern world order, which is relations with the US’ main geopolitical opponent, especially in conditions when the newly elected president hardly yet has the necessary completeness of information about the changes that have occurred both in these relations and in the world as a whole since his withdrawal from public affairs in early 2021.

Also noteworthy is a kind of “return pass” to the future US administration from a Chinese expert in an article published in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. Its central thesis was the assumption that “over the next four years” the PRC leadership will be busy solving economic problems and is unlikely to have a landing operation on Taiwan in its plans.

The topic of Taiwan was raised at a meeting between Donald Trump and the widow of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

The author would like to note once again the increasingly visible involvement of Japan in the Taiwan issue as it becomes more active in the international arena as a whole, where it is currently operating in a format of close coordination with its key ally, the United States. Like other allied countries, the Japanese leadership has found itself in a state of considerable bewilderment as to how to behave in the conditions of uncertainty caused by the current specifics of the process of transfer of power in Washington.

Thus far, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, has not managed to establish direct contact with the President-elect of the United States, and, apparently, the task of the most preliminary sounding out of his position on significant issues of world politics has been assigned to the widow of the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Akie, who, it should be noted, does not hold any government posts.

As a private person, Akie Abe visited the United States in mid-December, and there (at the Mar-a-Lago estate) she met with Trump and his wife Melania. It should be noted that during the period of Trump’s first presidency he was in close cooperation with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and, apparently, he respected the latter (unlike other leaders of allied countries).

It is reported that the meeting touched on the issues of relations with the PRC and the Taiwan issue, regarding which Trump limited himself to the remark that they are “a serious challenge to world peace.” At parting, he asked Akie Abe to give the current Prime Minister of Japan a book of photographs on which he had written a handwritten note “PEACE.”

In conclusion, we note that if the “greatness of the United States” during Trump’s second term in office is manifested in successful if not resolution, then at least reduction in the tension of conflict situations in different areas of the world, then such “greatness” can only be welcomed.

Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2025/01/05/the-taiwan-problem-during-the-period-of-change-of-power-in-the-united-states/