The most pressing challenge facing the “born-again” Trump administration is the volatile issue of Gaza, Palestine, and the broader Middle East.

Trump’s ability to “somehow” navigate this without igniting further regional unrest or alienating his political base and major donors will be a delicate balancing act. His unequivocal support for Israel may not hold steady, as global opinion grows ever more critical of the Zionist state, and its racist and genocidal policies. Even Trump has hinted at this, urging Israel to “be very careful because you’re losing a lot of the world.”

His words imply a growing awareness that Biden’s passive stance on the situation in Gaza, turning a blind eye to genocide, may not be sustainable if Trump hopes to maintain his own base at home, and avoid an international backlash.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

In recent years, the U.S. has shown little willingness to lead on resolving this never-ending conflict, a stance that risks complicating any future diplomatic efforts. The Israeli government’s hard line position, lack of interest in a two-state solution, and recent political turmoil - including the dismissal of Israel’s defense minister, a figure close to Biden - are indicative of deep divisions that could jeopardize even limited and short-term peace initiatives.

As long as Netanyahu remains steadfast in his policies; the likelihood of further violence grows, risking the internal cohesion of Israeli society while dividing the American Jewish community on its support for the country’s leadership. His goal of totally eliminating Hamas is unrealistic. Netanyahu’s unwavering approach has emboldened the aggressive settler movement, the “Land Grabbers”, which now claims even more Palestinian, and now Lebanese territory and carries out violence with growing impunity, bolstered by an apparent alignment with Trump’s worldview.

The once dependable support from Jewish voters in the U.S., which Democrats took for granted, traditionally a 70-30 split in favour of Democrats, has now shifted closer to 55-45, reflecting a fragmentation that echoes wider political divides across America. The “Zionist Dream,” once an ideal, now risks evolving into a modern nightmare.

A War with Iran: A Crisis Trump Wants to Avoid

Trump’s previous diplomatic manoeuvres in the region included the historic Abraham Accords, establishing ties between Israel and three Arab countries - a diplomatic feat that remains one of his most significant accomplishments. Avoiding a full-scale conflict with Iran is critical if he hopes to sustain this legacy and pursue further peace deals, particularly with Saudi Arabia. However, with Biden’s early moves having strained U.S.-Saudi relations, Trump’s potential return to office may come too late to repair them completely.

His goal to broker a deal between Israel and the Palestinians is ambitious, yet it remains the crux of any long-term peace in the Middle East. Without a substantive agreement, Trump’s administration may struggle to maintain its political stability at home while facing escalating regional tensions abroad.

This is important, not only because of the significant increase in domestic support from Jewish Americans, but because of the correspondingly large increase in support Trump received from US Muslims, who were disgusted by the Democrat party’s blatantly open support for Israel’s campaign of genocide against the Palestinians.

Though Trump has spoken about wanting to see a “decisive Israeli victory,” such rhetoric may play more to his base of American Evangelists than to the reality of the situation. There is no clear victory on the horizon, as the struggle for Palestinian rights and the redress of historical grievances has gained international support among a new generation of advocates.

This wave of resistance has illuminated the darker side of Zionism, drawing criticism and calls for justice that no administration can ignore entirely. Trump’s balancing act in the Middle East, and if mishandled, may not only test his legacy, and any hope of a future legacy, but also his political fortunes at home—and the fortunes of the Republican Party.

It would be a misstep for the US to allow some extreme Zionists elements to follow up by officially annexing the West Bank once Trump takes office in 2025. It is claimed that Zionists were only one step away from declaring sovereignty over the entire West Bank under Trump’s first term, and they are preparing to take that step now.

Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has ordered preparations for the annexation of the occupied West Bank ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump taking office in January 2025.   Smotrich voiced his hope that the new administration in Washington will recognize Israel’s push for “sovereignty” over the occupied territory.

Inability to back Israel unconditionally

In addition, recent events such as Iranian drones flying over US carriers in the Persian Gulf with the mighty USN unable to stop them, the heroic defiance of the Houthis against the combined might of NATO forces in the region and their blockade of Israel, and the western inability to prevent Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israel, despite Iran giving prior warning of the targets in order to reduce casualties, have shown that the US military appears poorly trained and equipped for the reality of modern war against an opponent equipped with state-of-the-art drones and hypersonic missiles.

The fact that Netanyahu believes he can count on Trump (it should be remembered that Trump shifted US recognition of the Israeli capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem) shows that he is confident of drawing the US in to deal with Israel’s enemies.

It must be hoped that Trump will lead with his brain and not with his emotions, and listen to wiser heads in his new administration. One hopeful sign is his demand that Netanyahu cease military operations prior to his inauguration, but there are still two months for Bibi to escalate the situation, and the appointment of Katz as the new defense minister, a man who sees Damascus as an Israeli city, is an ominous sign.

It would be beneficial to Trump, if he realizes that the crazed radical Zionists represented by Netanyahu do not represent actual Jewish values or traditions, and that the US Jewish voters that supported Trump in the election are the Jewish population that do, with their opposition to the ongoing genocide and land grabs in Gaza, the West bank, and Southern Lebanon.

No matter what Trump does, or tries, even with the best of intentions, Zionism has been exposed for what it really is! He cannot be all things to all people, and must learn to balance the rhetoric with the reality! His win has been a paradigm shifting event, not only in the US but on the world stage.

However, a misstep - such as backing Israel’s wider annexation ambitions or engaging too deeply in regional conflicts - could unravel his diplomatic gains and destabilize his domestic agenda, For Trump, navigating this terrain will require restraint, pragmatism, and an understanding that the stakes extend beyond his presidency to the heart of America’s role on the world stage. As Trump is a Christian, he should remember the proverbial saying “The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions”.

Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs. Courtesy

https://journal-neo.su/2024/11/24/dark-clouds-over-the-middle-east-trumps-tightrope-between-palestine-gaza-conflict-and-shifting-regional-political-sands/