Farmers distress warning signals for NDA government

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by K P Prabhakaran Nair

on 22 Mar 2019

On January 28, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised farmers to double their income by 2022, but the government has already lost half of this time. The BJP cannot hope to form the new government in Delhi without reclaiming the farmer-dense states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in the soon-to-be-held Parliamentary elections, which went to the Congress in the recent Assembly elections. With inflation at an 18-month low in December 2018, the Modi government cannot go to the voter, especially the large farmer segment in these states, emphatically. A pointer to this comes from the country’s wholesale and retail inflations, which have dipped to an all-time low of 3.8 and 2.2 per cent respectively.

This has really ruined the “farmer mood”, with farmer groups holding large anti-government demonstrations in places like Delhi and Mumbai. Farmers dumped wheat, potato and onions on the roads as market prices for these important daily consumables crashed and left the farmers bankrupt. Market data since July 2018 unequivocally proves that inflation rate for primary food items has plummeted below zero. The deflation in the wholesale prices clearly indicates farming is a loss making proposition.

The bane of the UPA government was that in 2008-09, when the prices of essential food items galloped, inflation reached double digit figures and the consumer felt throttled. This led to the downfall of the UPA government. What is happening this time round is just the opposite. While the consumer rejoices in the plummeting wholesale and retail price inflation, the farmer is left bankrupt and cheated. He has lost confidence in the NDA government, and the political price it paid is reflected in the electoral rout in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections.

Global prices of agricultural commodities are plummeting. At a time when the prices of agricultural commodities are globally low and India’s share of export in the agricultural sector, which has been historically low, gets further pushed down, and farmers cannot hope to get encouraging prices even if they try, distress on the farm front will swell, as has been shown in the recent past. To make matters worse, the wholesale price index of agricultural commodities is lower than the cost of important agricultural inputs, principal among them being chemical fertilisers and pesticides, not to speak of the irrigation water (where it comes free of charge with free electricity is not an all-India phenomenon). Between 2004 and 2014, during the UPA regime, the average earning of an agricultural household per month was just Rs 214, while expenditure was Rs 207 per month. In a period claimed to be the recovery phase for farmers, thanks to the 4 per cent plus growth rate in agriculture, a disposable income of Rs 7 per month is not just ironic, but tragic.

By all counts, the target of NDA, or more appropriately the Prime Minister’s promise to double farmer income by 2022, is simply wishful thinking because the ground reality is totally different. Data from NITI Aayog shows that the current growth rate of farmers income on real price adjusted for inflation is just 3.8 per cent. Hence, it will take a quarter century to double farmers’ income. Farm revenue fell by 6 per cent per annum from the last year of UPA for the following two years of NDA (2014-2016, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). From 2001-14 crop productivity grew by 3.1 per cent (NITI Aayog), which means at this rate the farm income will rise by 18.7 per cent by 2021. This number can be taken to 27.5 per cent by adding income from livestock as the government hopes to. With all the potential sources of income combined, it will be not before 2025 that a 107.5 per cent increase can be attained.

A few years ago, a national survey was conducted, which showed unequivocally that given the current agrarian crisis in the country, more than 40 per cent of those who are traditionally engaged in agriculture would wish to opt out if there were other viable economic avenues. Nothing much has been done by the UPA government or the current one to dramatically change this situation. Simply talking about the “cure for all”, that is, propping up the minimum support price, will not help.

There are deep seated endemic problems in Indian agriculture. Take one glaring example for discussion. Most of the current cultivars – products of high intensity, heavy input dependent “miracle dwarf crop varieties” of the so-called green revolution have run out of steam. Of the 328.73 million hectares (mha) of India’s geographical area, as much 140.40 mha have degraded soils, thanks to the mindless exploitation of soil resources by the so-called green revolution. Punjab, “cradle” of the green revolution, is the best example, where high intensity input (primarily chemical fertilisers and pesticides combined with copious water use) farming has left the once fertile soils barren, ground water loaded with nitrate residues arising from unbridled use of urea, making it non-potable and severely depleting soil carbon, the bedrock of soil fertility.

More than 40 per cent of the country’s debt-ridden households depend on farming. With the general election round the corner, the ruling government and the principal opposition (Congress) are scrambling to provide first-aid solutions to the farmer, however ineffective they will prove to be in the long run. The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi announced in the interim budget, with an allocation of Rs 75,000 crore for 2019-20, is one such “first aid” solution. In this context, one should note that in 2017-18, the price of agricultural produce rose just by 1 per cent, while farmers endured 4 per cent increase in input costs. In 2018-19, the situation worsened as the agricultural products price did not increase at all, while input costs rose by 5 per cent. Indian agriculture is really at a crossroads, better minds and better plans have to be in place to salvage this sinking ship.

The author is former Professor, National Science Foundation, The Royal Society, Belgium & Currently, Senior Fellow, Alexander von Humboldt Research Foundation, The Federal Republic of Germany and can be reached at drkppnair@gmail.com

User Comments Post a Comment

Prabhakaran Nair deserves the gratitude of the Indian nation for his incisive analysis of the Globalist destruction of India's agricultural sector, in a country which, prior to British colonialism and exploitation, was once a prosperous agrarian region.

Actually, the same gobalists who have so damaged India's farmers and their soils, have done the same in every country, including in Australia, which is why I can empathise so closely with Prabhakaran's timely warnings.

International readers might appreciate the comparison because this exposes the orchestrated nature of the horrific and destructive 'Green Revolution'.

In Australia, a mere 4% is arable land, the rest being agriculturally unproductive. The same oil and chemical industry generated 'Green Revolution' plundering India has so damaged Australian soils that Emeritus professor Henry Nix issued the warning that in a few brief years these soils will be so devoid of biota, organics, structure, and natural fertility that they will be effectively sterile.

What nobody is saying is that this is the deliberate destruction of national food production capacity, undertaken so profitably by the oil and chemical corporations, which are owned by the globalist investment bankers, who are the same Zionist entities that the Australian Government and India's Modi, are negotiating with as we speak.

Clearly, this is a global problem and must be fought on this level, as well as nationally. A new breed of politicians must emerge, advocates who actually represent the ordinary people, and who can unite against destructive globalism.

My thanks to Sandhya Jain for publishing this all-important article

Tony Ryan
March 22, 2019

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A distressing picture indeed. The author deserves our gratitude for the professionally honest exposition. And Ms Sandhya for publishing it without fear.

While there is no doubt that the farmers are in dire straits economically the fruits of their labour are consumed not so much by the ordinary mortals but the greedy middle men.

I cannot understand how in a country where even the information commissioners have a union, call it an association for being specific, the farmers have not been able to organise themselves and resist the exploitation by the mercenaries. This is an area where the political parties, with all their claims to grass root workers, can do some good work.

Another equally horrifying fact is the continued use of dangerous pesticides and insecticides. There are video clips floating in social media of farmers tying hazardous pesticides to the roots of even coconut trees with the aim of increasing the yield. And of mangoes being ripened with cancerogenous chemcals.

This comment cannot be complete without mentioning the failure of our authorities to enforce the laws on adulteration of food materials. One of the most glaring of such treachery is the Kerala High Court ordering six lakh kilograms of pepper coated with mineral oil and polished with paraffin wax, and ordered by the then food safety commissioner of kerala to be destroyed by burning, to be cleaned! This was cleaned using detergents, rinsed, dried and when found unfit for export was sold in the local markets. More recently there was a report of almost all popular brands of coconut oil sold in the market being adulterated but no action seems to have been taken except for reporting the brand names through media. The result is that Kerala can now almost claim to be the cancer capital of the country, if not the world.

P M Ravindran
March 22, 2019

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Rural distress has been cited as one of the big reasons for BJP's rout in Raj,MP, and Chatishgarh.
Before going into this aspect,one has to raise the question-- what has the congress govt done during the last 50years of thier rule? The Congress, after plundering the wealth of the country, expects the Modi govt to pay the farmers, and jobless youth, when the government coffers are nearly empty and economy shattered by the Congress. . What the congress could not do in fifty years,they expect Modi &co to do in five years.
Most of the electronic and print media highlight only what a man did not do and selectively omit what good he has done.
Assuming that the statistics that the author of this article are correct, and has a negative impact, this negative factor will not seriously affect the 2019 election prospects for the BJP.There are hundreds of positive factors for the BJP, which neutralise the negatives . These positives being too many, cannot be elaborated in a short comment.

No body , including the BJP,denies that the agricultural sector is adversely affected and urgent steps are no doubt, needed . However, the congress " loan waiver gimmick" is only a popular quick fix temporary solution that cannot solve the farmers problems permanently .It is like another congress gimmick of going on temple visits only during elections and at other times, abusing and raising anti Hindu slogans to appease the minorities.

The BJP government has raised the support prices of crops like soyabeans and paddy rice, to ensure farmers get atleast 50%more than the estimated product cost. Besides that, the government plans to pay cash to farmers if their produce sell at a discounted rate to the govt set rates. The centre has also announced the Direct Benefits Transfer (DBT)worth rs 4000/per acre,per season,plus interest free loans upto one lakh per farmer. The DBT eliminates middle men in the business.

Mohanpura irrigation project in Rajgarh at a cost of 3866crores will benefit 727 villages.
When a seed is sown,it takes time to grow and yield fruits. The same is the case with various projects initiated by the BJP govt.Modi &co should therefore be allowed to continue so that his projects yield fruits. Removing him pre maturely is like uprooting the young plants to see if roots are growing underneath. The Congress created the NPA scam to the tune of 52lakh crores. This huge amount could have been provided to the farmers.why did the congress not give it?

Panikkath Krishnan Unni
March 22, 2019

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Very true

Ajay
March 22, 2019

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I agree with Shri Krishnan Unni, the BJP cannot be expected to do all the damage done to Indian agriculture by the Congress in a short time.
Hopefully, if voted back to power, the BJP can further accelerate reforms in agriculture.

Merely, increasing production (and the corresponding fall in the price that farmers get) won't do. Above all a concerted effort should be made to do away with large scale use of chemicals and fertilisers, and introduce sensible organic farming methods. The soil has been exhausted.

A judicious use of the Rishi Krishi system on an all India basis can be
introduced.