Jayalalithaa demise and political realignment In Tamil Nadu
by Naagesh Padmanaban on 05 Jan 2017 4 Comments

The passing away of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa on December 6, 2016 has cast a pall of gloom over the state. At 68, she was relatively young and had lot of public service left in her. But fate willed otherwise. The passing away of Jayalalithaa signals a phase of uncertainty and tumultuous changes over the coming days that can recast Tamil Nadu politics forever. It will most certainly reverberate in Delhi too.

 

Huge mass of mourners and supporters gathered for the funeral to bid farewell, a gathering that was unprecedented in recent times. The credit for the orderly conduct of the funeral goes to the police and civil administration as well as central forces. The invisible hand of the Central government was evident all over – from the meticulous funeral arrangements to strict enforcement of law and order by deploying central forces and thus preventing riots and unrest in the state. The complete absence of riots at the death of an important leader was indeed unprecedented and a pleasant surprise for the people in Tamil Nadu.

 

The demise of the Chief Minister could not have come at a worse time for the ruling AIADMK. Absent Jayalalithaa, the party is nothing. For the huge mass of mourning supporters, the death of the leader was a double whammy – loss of a beloved leader and the threat of disintegration of the party that could throw them out of power in the not very distant future.

 

The potential for trouble comes from within the party as well as from the overall political dynamics in the state. The AIADMK, as most are aware, is a party where the personal charisma of the founder M.G Ramachandran and his protégé Jayalalithaa carried the shots. Nobody else mattered. There were no designated heir(s) or succession plans. This has suddenly left a power vacuum that now threatens to kill the party itself. And the threat is real and could happen sooner than later.

 

The current crop of leaders like O. Panneerselvam, the new Chief Minister or Sasikala Natarajan (now interim general secretary of the party), are neither fiery orators nor do they have sizeable committed following and hence can by no means live up to the ‘theatrical expectations’ of the Tamil people. They simply do not fit the bill and are at best stop gap leaders who can temporarily delay the disintegration.

 

The real problem is that this tiny cabal could actually end up as puppets to larger extra-constitutional political configurations. The demise of the leader has undeniably left a power vacuum in Fort George, the administrative headquarters of the state, leaving the arena open exclusively to a charismatic leader with a large following.

 

The current political scenario obtaining in Tamil Nadu offers succor and fuel for political upheavals. The state is in a deadly calm before new political storms rage across the state, sooner than later. Let us see why.

 

The main opposition party, the DMK, is a house divided. Its leader, M. Karunanidhi, is 92 years old and not in the best of health. He has however, managed to push the infighting away from public eye - at least for the present. If insiders are to be believed, the party faces an uncertain future as it struggles to contain dissent and may see a two-way or three-way split.

 

As regards the rest of the political parties – most are extremist fringe elements that are confined to district level influence. In any case, these parties may not be able to appeal to broader segments of Tamils and thus may not pose a challenge to the major parties. However, they can play a significant role in a hung election that would require a coalition government. But, unfortunately for them, the demonetization of high denomination currency notes has dried up their sources of funds and hence they may find themselves too enervated to play any significant role.

 

The Congress party has no grassroots support or organization and eliminates itself from any significant role in the political dynamics of the state.

 

The BJP and its sister organizations have been visible and over the years have built significant grassroot level assets in Tamil Nadu. However, the BJP has not mustered the political will so far to contest elections all by itself or contest more seats. Will the Tamils countenance a government led by the BJP? That is the million-rupee question that has no easy answers.

 

Having said that, there is a strong possibility for the BJP allying with the rump of AIADMK and ‘a charismatic leader with a large following’. This ‘charismatic leader’ could be superstar Rajnikanth. The latter has assiduously avoided entering politics, but has all along nurtured big political ambitions. If his recent statements are any indication, it may not be a surprise if the superstar steps out and announces his willingness to ‘work for the upliftment of Tamils’.

 

The demise of Jayalalithaa has irreversibly pushed Tamil Nadu to the edge of a political tipping point. Irrespective of the permutation of political parties and the political formations that they will spawn, some things will change for ever. One is Dravidian politics. The other is the emergence the millennials or the smart-phone generation on the electorate.

 

The Dravidian brand of politics that Tamil Nadu has witnessed for over six decades, was nothing more than a concoction of pseudo rationalism, fake atheism, selective hate mongering and an unabashed anti-Hindu demagoguery all encapsulated as an ‘undying love for Tamil’. As pointed out by many experts, Dravidian ideology in reality was nothing more than a clever tool to break, rather than unite India. It was a perversion that kept Tamil Nadu economically backward for many decades.  But it has long outlived its utility.  Truth be told, Jayalalithaa all along abhorred this corrosive and self-destructive ideology and had stopped it in its tracks. In her demise, she has only catalyzed and hastened the full dismantling of this specious ideology.

 

The other factor contributing to the coming political upheaval is the emergence of the millennials or smart-phone generation. This demographic is growing fast and commanding an increasing say in all affairs in India and Tamil Nadu is no exception. Better educated and moneyed, these millennials are cosmopolitan in outlook and live in a selfish zone beyond the pale of the dreary Dravidian demagoguery, by sheer accident, rather than choice. They can think on their own and would be extremely difficult to influence. Yet this younger generation will pass the final verdict on the political future of the state. The political parties in the state are clueless and have not even courted them.

 

The death of Jayalalithaa may have just triggered a massive political domino effect. The coming political upheavals in Tamil Nadu could be an eye opener for repeat performances across India. History, they say repeats itself. 

User Comments Post a Comment
The sad reason why so many westerners hold India in contempt is demonstrated by the 1950s style rantings of Naagesh Padmanaban.

Optimists like me have observed Indian behavior on the international stage for some decades and have recently noted the emergence of 21st century-compatible articulation on many subjects, including global peace initiatives. Some are level with the world's best.

True, India's political leaders are low on intellect and integrity, but so too are those of every nation, including the clowns that run Australia. But some of the worlds finest thinkers are Indian and this is so encouraging for geopolitical observers such as myself.

Then, all of a sudden, Modi does something globally stupid, such as this air strike, and India's nutters come to the surface reminding us we all still have a long way to go. So, please, Nagesh, put your flag and war toys away and dwell on the thought that an incident like this can escalate into WWIII.

Meanwhile, Modi has joined Trump and Netanyahu on the throne of crazy megalomaniacs trying to set the world on fire.
Tony Ryan
March 01, 2019
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So true "The fact is that they were always a potent force to reckon with, even before India got its Independence from Britain in 1947".

In fact it was Indian forces which won the World wars, a contribution which has not been acknowledged.

Same story, Indian invention/contribution, Western patent or credit.
Karthi
March 01, 2019
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We must acknowledge the quality of IAF pilots. They are considered near equal to the Israelis, said to have the best air force in the world. And also the support staff who have kept the planes and weapons in top order.
Pakistan's F16 planes are complex and hard to maintain.

I see this only as the beginning, hopefully the beginning of the end. But India has also to counter enemies within.
Navaratna Rajaram
March 01, 2019
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Even more importantly, for the first time ever GoI officially and openly used "jihadis" instead of "terrorists". In other words, the koranic root of jihad which negationists like Mr Tony Ryan dare not acknowledge.

The Koran is the outpouring of a medieval mindset. That has to be dealt with. No doubt Mr Ryan can persuade his own countrypeople to teach us 1950s Indians the way to do so!

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-struck-biggest-training-camp-of-jem-foreign-sec-confirms/article26372319.ece

This
Bharati
March 01, 2019
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ek @tony ryan superior, baki sab inferior. And we thought racism went out of style after the end of apartheid regime! But some things never change. Just one of those opinionated buffoons from those who have 'submit' from among the peaceniks.
Jay Bharati
March 01, 2019
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Like the Supremo said, 'yeh to bas ek pilot tha, main project jaldi hi anewala hai, precision execution ke saath.'
Jay Bharati
March 01, 2019
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andar ki baat kuchh aur ho sakti hai, like Jaitley hinted. 1999 ka badla to ho chuka. Don't believe in the Paki-sponsored rumours of Masood Azhar being too ill just now.
Jay Bharati
March 01, 2019
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India launched a pre-emptive counter-terror attack on PoK without causing any civilian casualties. None of the mealy mouthed peaceniks and selective pacifists came out against the victims of terror in India. The argument among a certain sections of the West is that we should keep shoeing the other cheek and take the licking. Those days are over. We will do everything we can hereafter to defend our civilians and our sovereignty with all that we have got.
shankar
March 01, 2019
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Too Early to Celebrate!

jaykumar
March 01, 2019
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Yes, indeed, the IAF pilots are considered among the best in the world.
Dr. Vijaya Rajiva
March 01, 2019
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I would like to first of all salute the brave air warriors team led by the one and only greatest P.M of our motherland Sri Narendra Damodardas Modi. Secondly my whole thioughts went out to Group captain who flew the MIG Bison to kill a F16 ,a feat which is being talked about all over the world Sonia and gang ruined our motherland and made us beggars,and they are still at it with the help of a few junkies at the top positions in the Govt.The biso killing a F16 can be equated to a an ambassador car chasing an Aston Martin ! This is an awakened Bharat ready to take on the world anywhere,anytime anyplace.The King who is learned in all acts of ruling a nation is in command.
The author has brilliantly detailed out the operation in letter and spirit as a true Indian would have done. Kudos to him for a good write up. Our armed forces are second t none in bravery innovations,skill and ability to tackle any situation anywhere anytime and inany environment I salute them all the way.
doraiswamyganesh
March 01, 2019
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@ Tony Ryan.
You " put your flag and war toys away"
Right at the outset , let me very sternly remind Tony Ryan that Bharat (India) ,is not a guinea pig for military experimentation by Pakistan, China,or any other country, for testing the efficacy of their weapons.
No country in the world follows your stupid advice of keeping " war toys away" .Those who take your idiotic advice in India are now not in power to implement your stupid advice.

You " India's political leaders are low in intellect and integrity"

Tony should be bold enough to name and shame these leaders who are low in intellect and integrity . Making such vague, ambiguous,or sweeping statements , only reveals Tony's low or jaundiced intellect.

You " Modi does something globally stupid,such as this air strike"

Many of the so called developed countries, have appreciated and supported Modiji's economic and defence policies , and resulted in a near global isolation of Pakistan , branding it as a " terror sponsoring country" Tony Ryan should note that Modi is not in a mood to modify his principles to please Pakistan and Muslim minorities of India, who indulge in abusing the armed forces.
Modiji's attack has been well calibrated . Pakistan military establishment and civilians has not been targeted. The target is terrorists who infiltrate into Indian soil and indulge in Terrorism.This retaliation is small and limited in intensity and Pakistan should thank India, that she has not opted for a full scale war, which is long overdue.
Bharati here in rightly commented " the Koran is the out pouring of a medieval mindset" Tony Ryan should acknowledge that this mindset which is many centuries older than the " 1950s rantings" of a deeply patriotic Hindu ,needs to change drastically.,as otherwise, there is no solution to control terrorism. Unless that mindset changes , not just India,but most of the countries of the world, will have no option,but the biggest artillery gun available in the world.
Panikkath Krishnan Unni
March 01, 2019
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A well articulated write, though with an overstated conclusion. The bone of terror outfits, that is the ISI and the jehadi segment in their in the deep state, of Pakistan is more or less intact. The 'Pilot Project', at best has opened up new vistas for future actions. The new security paradigm, glimpses of which were noticeable in the operation under discussion, is a fine blend of diplomacy, economic power punch and, of course, the delivery by the armed might. @ Tony Ryans not withstanding, the punch delivered to Pakistan after her Pulwama adventure shall go down as a text book exercise for Air Warriors for all times to come.
RB Sharma
March 01, 2019
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Do not relent. Keep up the pressure on Pakistan. They may be better on optics and perception games. A nation of liars and back-stabbing excels in such phony tricks that befool our mealy mouthed liberals. Never forget that Neville Chamberlain's grievous error of succumbing to appeasement politics. Europe had to pay the price for that. Academic intellectuals who scream for peace and dialogue know little about the ground reality. Peace with Pakistan will be possible when they give up their politics of terror and jihad. That seems unlikely in the near future given the giant and interlocking terror and hate machinery Pakistan has in place. This machinery has to be completely destroyed before peace can even be contemplated.
shankar
March 02, 2019
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Marcus Tullius Cicero the great Roman statesman:
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”

Today the fifth columnists inside India are doubting the verity of our armed forcces who give their lives to protect our Land and her people. I say to them, " As you want proof of Itself from what is itself the proof, I dare you and your loved family to come and be first line of defence where the enemy shells fall, be pointsmen for every sortie of our side. You will then have all the proof you need!"
Chandra Ravikumar
March 03, 2019
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